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No clear favorite, rain make for unpredictable Kentucky Derby

May 5, 2017 Written by Paper Shredding

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Two trainers saddling three horses each. A horse trying to win for the first time. The early favorite whose training was interrupted. Another attempting to overcome irascible behavior.

The 20-horse field for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby lacks a dominant runner. The winter prep races did nothing to establish a clear favorite.

Classic Empire is the 4-1 pre-race choice. Two horses, Always Dreaming and McCraken, are the co-second choices at 5-1. Toss in the threat of rain early in the day, which could soak well-dressed racegoers wearing fancy hats, and it all makes for a most unpredictable Derby.

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Todd Pletcher will saddle three horses 5-1 shot Always Dreaming, 20-1 Tapwrit and 30-1 Patch, the one-eyed horse. Pletcher is 1 for 45 in the Derby.

With no left eye, Patch will only see the crowd as he breaks from the far outside spot in the gate. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione figures to hustle him over to the rail to save ground as the field makes its way to the traffic-choked first turn.

Steve Asmussen also has three runners, and they’re all longshots: 15-1 Hence, 20-1 Lookin at Lee, and 30-1 Untrapped. He is winless in 15 tries, the only hole in his Hall of Fame resume.

“The Kentucky Derby would look really good to add to the list,” he said.

Don’t look for four-time winner Bob Baffert. The white-haired trainer doesn’t have a horse this year, but like everyone else, he has an opinion.

“There’s a lot of parity. There are some nice, solid horses,” he said. “I think Classic Empire is probably the best horse in the race. Todd’s horse has brilliance, Always Dreaming. If they can get him figured out, he could steal it. The rest are bombers.”

The rain is predicted to end hours before the race goes off in the early evening. The last Derby run on an off-track was 2013 when Orb splashed home in front.

Favorites have won the Derby the past four years, the longest such streak since the 1970s.

Sonneteer will try to overcome that bit of history. He’s 0 for 10 in his career. He would be just the fourth maiden and the first since Brokers Tip in 1933 to wear the roses.

Classic Empire sure looked like the early Derby favorite last year when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was named 2-year-old champion. He made his 3-year-old debut with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes in February. Then came two more months off caused by hoof and back injuries. Twice, the bay colt didn’t want to train.

“We’re happy to be where we are today given the last couple of months,” trainer Mark Casse said. “I love being the favorite. Let’s just enjoy the ride.”

Always Dreaming had been fractious in morning workouts leading up to the Derby. In an effort to harness the colt’s energy, Pletcher switched to longer reins, and Always Dreaming resisted. He has since calmed down and John Velazquez will be in the saddle Saturday to lend an experienced hand.

Girvin has battled a quarter crack in his right front hoof that limited his workouts. Trainer Joe Sharp and his assistant-wife, former jockey Rosie Napravnik, had the colt swimming and using a hyperbaric chamber to make the race.

Gunnevera’s trainer, Antonio Sano, was kidnapped twice in his native Venezuela before relocating his family to Miami. Jockey Javier Castellano, also from the violence-wracked nation, is trying to snap an 0 for 10 skid in the Derby. Gunnevera is the cheapest horse in the field. He was bought for $16,000 at auction.

“Every day, I stop to think, `My horse can win the Kentucky Derby,”‘ Sano said. “It would be a big gift for the people of Venezuela at this moment. In Venezuela, people are killing people. People have no food. Very sad.”

Thunder Snow carries the hopes of Godolphin Racing, which is owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. He’s the ruler of Dubai. The stable is winless in nine previous Derby attempts.

“There’s plenty of speed lined up for this race and nobody’s going to get an easy lead,” said Jerry Hollendorfer, who trains Battle of Midway.

Horses coming from off the pace often get dirt kicked in their faces for the first time.

“Some horses don’t like that and they lose their concentration,” said Ian Wilkes, who trains McCraken. “Other horses thrive on the challenge and my horse likes a challenge.”

Post time is about 3:50 p.m.

Read more about No clear favorite, rain make for unpredictable Kentucky Derby This post was shared via Orange County Register’s RSS Feed. Irvine Shredding Service

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This Kentucky Derby pick of McCraken is almost perfect

May 5, 2017 Written by Paper Shredding

It’s not hard to imagine ways that Saturday’s Kentucky Derby could have featured a single standout favorite instead of four contenders — maybe more — vying for stardom.

The simplest way it could have been different involves the colt with the misspelled name of McCraken.

Going into last month’s Blue Grass Stakes, McCraken was undefeated through four career starts, No. 1 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s 3-year-old rankings, and favored in Kentucky Derby future wagering. He was one win away from going to Louisville as the clear horse to beat.

But he finished third in the Blue Grass. And in that minute and 50 seconds, he went from a perfect record and the Derby horse to beat to a recently defeated horse and the co-second choice, at 5-1, on the Derby morning line.

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It says here that questions stemming from McCraken’s lone loss can be answered easily enough to make him a good bet.

McCraken probably wasn’t fully fit for the Blue Grass, which was his first start in nearly three months, because of a minor ankle injury that appeared after he won the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Blue Grass’s lack of early speed made it hard for McCraken, who characteristically slipped toward the back of the pack midway through the race, to make up ground on longshot winner Irap. The pace should be much quicker Saturday.

Then there’s the human factor that makes the Blue Grass setback look like a positive step.

McCraken’s trainer, Australian-born Ian Wilkes, knew that while the Blue Grass is a big race in its own right, the aim wasn’t to win April 8 but to get ready for the first Saturday in May.

Wilkes has displayed that wisdom before, notably with Fort Larned, the horse who won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita a month after a third-place disappointment in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. Fort Larned’s breeder-owner, Janis Whitham, and jockey, Brian Hernandez, are the same as McCraken’s. (Whitham named the horse for the town of McCracken in her native Kansas, and the spelling got messed up in paperwork).

Wilkes learned well while coming up as an assistant to Carl Nafzger. That Hall of Fame trainer won the Derby twice. In 1990, Unbridled won it after seeming to take a step back with a third-place finish in the Blue Grass. In 2007, Street Sense won it after finishing second as a heavy favorite in the Blue Grass.

Strong cases can be made for three other horses — at least — on Saturday:

  • Classic Empire (4-1), the 2-year-old champion, came back from his own minor injury to win the Arkansas Derby and may simply be the class of this field.
  • Always Dreaming (5-1) ran away with the Florida Derby and should be in front of the other favorites early.
  • Irish War Cry (6-1) won the Wood Memorial with an impressive early attack on a fast pace, and is the only horse with two 100-plus Beyer speed figures.

I like Irish War Cry as the early threat and McCraken late. I plan to bet McCraken to win and emphasize those two horses in exotic bets along with any or all of Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Battle of Midway, Tapwrit and Gunnevera.

Kevin Modesti is a Southern California News Group editorial writer. As a sports writer, he covered 16 runnings of the Kentucky Derby.

Read more about This Kentucky Derby pick of McCraken is almost perfect This post was shared via Orange County Register’s RSS Feed. Irvine Shredding Service

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